A correlation between events can appear to exist when they are in fact illusionary. This can result from observing two events potentially being linked so we begin to expect they are related even when they are not.

Illusory correlations

After watching several vivid news reports about a recent, dramatic plane crash, a traveler becomes convinced that flying is more dangerous than driving and decides to drive 12 hours to their destination instead. Statistically, driving that distance is far riskier than flying. Which statement best explains the traveler's flawed judgment?

The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut where individuals make decisions based on information that is most easily recalled, such as a recent experience or a vivid example. This reliance on readily available information can lead to flawed judgments, as the most accessible information is not always the most representative or accurate for making a sound decision.

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

Google

Columbia University

Stanford University

Trinity College (CT)

- Priming effect (and anchoring)

- Halo effect

- Sampling effect

- Availability heuristic

- Representative heuristic

Effects that arise from system 1 activity

- Availability bias
- Negativity bias
- Base rate neglect
- Confirmation bias
- Status quo bias
- Framing effect
- Belief bias
- Hindsight bias
- Propaganda effect
- Bias blind spot
- Egocentric bias
- Fundamental Attribution Error
- Motivated reasoning
- Group-centric bias
- Third person effect
- Cross-group bias
- Ingroup bias
- Memory bias
- Prior Belief bias
- Bias Blind spots


List of biases (and behavioral effects)

- Substituting questions
- Representative heuristic 
- Availability heuristic
- Affect heuristic
- Anchoring 
- Stereotype
- Self-Based Heuristic (SBH)
- Frugal Cognitive Heuristic
- Bandwagon heuristic
- Endorsement heuristic
- Working backwards

Types of heuristics

* Anchoring bias
* Confirmation bias
* Hindsight bias
* Representative bias
* Availability heuristic

Decision-Making Biases

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. science, 185(4157), 1124-1131.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/185/4157/1124.abstract

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Nota, 2013.

Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman

Goldstein, E. B. (2014). Cognitive psychology: Connecting mind, research and everyday experience. Nelson Education.


Cognitive psychology: Connecting mind, research and everyday experience

Spielman, R. M., Jenkins, W. J., & Lovett, M. D. (2020, April 22). Psychology (2nd ed.). OpenStax. https://openstax.org/books/psychology-2e/pages/1-introduction

OpenStax Psychology (2nd ed.) Textbook

Even statistical experts do not recognize if a sampling effects played a large role in an outcome, when using their intuition.

Intuitive understanding of sampling effects

When a sensory experience (hearing a word/phrase, or seeing a picture), triggers an associational response that effects your decision making afterwards. The presentation of some stimuli affects someones response to the presentation of a following one.

Priming effect

Availability Heuristic

The Halo Effect is a cognitive bias where an individual's overall impression of a person influences subsequent judgments about their specific character traits. For example, a generally positive perception can lead to the assumption that the person also possesses other desirable qualities, such as good morals or intelligence, without any direct evidence.

Halo Effect

The mind tends to ignore base rates (even if informed) and focuses on the most recently discovered evidence. Generally underweighted or neglected when specific casee information is available

base rate neglect (fallacy)

People have a tendency to do nothing when facing a decision (exemplified by opt-in and opt-out procedures).

Status quo bias

People's decisions are affected by the way that the choices are framed (presented).

Framing effect

People have a tendency to think a syllogism is valid if it looks like it is true.

Belief Bias

Hindsight bias, also known as the 'knew-it-all-along' phenomenon, is the tendency to perceive past events as having been more predictable than they actually were. After an event's outcome is known, individuals often mistakenly believe they would have accurately predicted it beforehand.

Hindsight Bias

When people have heard something before they are more likely to assume it is true, even if the first time they were introduced to it they were told it wasn't true.

Propaganda effect

Humans have a bias to think they are less biased than others. Arises from the implicit operation of our beliefs which help us justify our actions. This can exacerbate other forms of bias because one is unaware of their own bias or they minimize their bias in comparison to others.

Bias Blind Spot

Humans have a tendency to focus on the negative. For example, we focus more on potential threats than benefits.

Negativity bias

Humans tend to overestimate the influence of personality (dispositional) compared to situational factors when making explanations for why people do what they do. 

The Fundamental Attribution Error

A bias in which new information that supports what we want to believe is readily accepted and information that supports what we do not want to believe is scrutinized in an effort to reduce cognitive dissonance. Motivated reasoning is very similar to confirmation bias

Motivated Reasoning

A hypothesis that people believe mass media has a larger influence on others than on themselves

Third Person Effect

When members of a particular population or community (i.e., group) favor the group of which they are a member for a particular measure.

Group-Centric Bias

When group members have negative views towards nonmembers of their group, not limited to nonmembers who are related to the group in an obvious way. 

Cross-Group Bias

Although humans ordinarily prioritize self-enhancing information, individuals also often perceive news media as largely opposing their personal beliefs.

Biases in media perception

A common type of bias that occurs when one does not recall information verbatim but instead recalls their own personal interpretation of the information.

Memory Bias

When a person's prior beliefs or attitudes impact what information they pay attention to and how they interpret new information. This bias often manifests as favoring information that is consistent with one's worldview and beliefs.

Prior Belief Bias

Confirmation bias is the cognitive tendency to selectively focus on cases that validate our pre-existing intuitive beliefs while actively disregarding or forgetting cases that disconfirm them. This mental shortcut leads individuals to reinforce incorrect assumptions by ignoring contradictory evidence.

Confirmation Bias

Humans place themselves at the center of their universe. New information is learned more easily when it relates to the person learning it.

Egocentric Bias

In-group bias is the tendency to prefer one's own group over other groups. This preference stems from the strong sense of belonging and emotional connection individuals feel toward their in-groups.

In-Group Bias

We often make predictions based on how much a description fits our preconceived stereotypes. This leads to ignoring base rates (base rate neglect) and the accuracy of the description.

Representative heuristic

An oversimplified representation of group. It often focuses on negative characteristics.

Stereotype

The self-based heuristic refers to the degree to which an individual’s own characteristics contribute to ratings of another’s personality. We use the self as a reference to judge others.

Self-Based Heuristic (SBH)

The emotion at the time of hearing about something affects our judgement of it. On the most basic level if we are in a bad mood, we will evaluate something worse and if we are in a good mood, we will evaluate it as better. 

Affect Heuristic

Fast and frugal heuristics are used during the decision-making process when understanding of the situation and the time and cognitive power needed to make the decision is limited (bounded rationality). 

Fast and Frugal Cognitive Heuristics

People use the popularity of an idea to inform what kind of content they select. It is a continuous cycle in which people see a post has many likes, so they share it, garnering more likes.

Bandwagon Heuristic

When people equate the popularity of ideas to the quality of the ideas. People are more willing to adopt what their peers have deemed as valuable.

Endorsement Heuristic

Working backwards is a problem-solving heuristic where an individual starts with the desired final outcome and works in reverse to determine the necessary steps to achieve it. This method is frequently applied in everyday planning, often without conscious thought.

Working Backwards

System 1 often substitutes hard-to-answer questions with easier ones (without the awareness of system 2).  

Substituting Questions (Heuristic Questions)

When people consider a value and then have to estimate an unknown quantity. The estimated number will stay close to original number considered, whether or not the original number is related to the unknown quantity. There is debate on whether the effect is an adjustment heuristic (Tversky), an example of priming (Kahneman), or both.

Anchoring

The task decomposition heuristic is a problem-solving strategy that involves breaking down a large or complex goal into a series of smaller, more manageable steps. This approach makes overwhelming tasks feel more achievable. It also helps in identifying errors and separating known elements from unknown ones, a technique famously used by physicist Enrico Fermi.

Task Decomposition Heuristic

After watching extensive news coverage of a rare but dramatic lottery win in their city, a person starts spending a significant portion of their income on lottery tickets. Despite statistical evidence showing the odds are astronomically low, the vivid, recent example of a winner makes the possibility feel much more likely. Which mental shortcut best explains this person's change in behavior?

Anchoring bias is a cognitive error that occurs when an individual relies too heavily on a single piece of initial information when making a decision or attempting to solve a problem. This singular focus can prevent a person from accurately assessing other available options or information.

Anchoring Bias

Representative bias is a cognitive shortcut where decisions are made by comparing a person or situation to existing stereotypes or prior beliefs. This reliance on perceived similarity often leads to flawed judgments, as other relevant statistical information, like base rates, is frequently ignored.

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