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When people consider a value and then have to estimate an unknown quantity. The estimated number will stay close to original number considered, whether or not the original number is related to the unknown quantity. There is debate on whether the effect is an adjustment heuristic (Tversky), an example of priming (Kahneman), or both.
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Behavioral Economics
Psychology
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Spreading activation
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Stereotype
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Task Decomposition Heuristic
After watching extensive news coverage of a rare but dramatic lottery win in their city, a person starts spending a significant portion of their income on lottery tickets. Despite statistical evidence showing the odds are astronomically low, the vivid, recent example of a winner makes the possibility feel much more likely. Which mental shortcut best explains this person's change in behavior?