target: How happy are you with life?
heuristic: What is my mood right now?

target: How much would I contribute to an endangered species? 
heuristic: How emotional am I right now about dying dolphins?

examples of substituting questions 

System 1 often substitutes hard-to-answer questions with easier ones (without the awareness of system 2).  

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

Trinity College (CT)

Smith College

- Substituting questions
- Representative heuristic 
- Availability heuristic
- Affect heuristic
- Anchoring 
- Stereotype
- Self-Based Heuristic (SBH)
- Frugal Cognitive Heuristic
- Bandwagon heuristic
- Endorsement heuristic
- Working backwards

Types of heuristics

Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Nota, 2013.

Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman

We often make predictions based on how much a description fits our preconceived stereotypes. This leads to ignoring base rates (base rate neglect) and the accuracy of the description.

Representative heuristic

An oversimplified representation of group. It often focuses on negative characteristics.

Stereotype

The self-based heuristic refers to the degree to which an individual’s own characteristics contribute to ratings of another’s personality. We use the self as a reference to judge others.

Self-Based Heuristic (SBH)

The emotion at the time of hearing about something affects our judgement of it. On the most basic level if we are in a bad mood, we will evaluate something worse and if we are in a good mood, we will evaluate it as better. 

Affect Heuristic

Fast and frugal heuristics are used during the decision-making process when understanding of the situation and the time and cognitive power needed to make the decision is limited (bounded rationality). 

Fast and Frugal Cognitive Heuristics

People use the popularity of an idea to inform what kind of content they select. It is a continuous cycle in which people see a post has many likes, so they share it, garnering more likes.

Bandwagon Heuristic

When people equate the popularity of ideas to the quality of the ideas. People are more willing to adopt what their peers have deemed as valuable.

Endorsement Heuristic

Working backwards is a problem-solving heuristic where an individual starts with the desired final outcome and works in reverse to determine the necessary steps to achieve it. This method is frequently applied in everyday planning, often without conscious thought.

Working Backwards

The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut where individuals make decisions based on information that is most easily recalled, such as a recent experience or a vivid example. This reliance on readily available information can lead to flawed judgments, as the most accessible information is not always the most representative or accurate for making a sound decision.

Availability Heuristic

Substituting Questions (Heuristic Questions)

When people consider a value and then have to estimate an unknown quantity. The estimated number will stay close to original number considered, whether or not the original number is related to the unknown quantity. There is debate on whether the effect is an adjustment heuristic (Tversky), an example of priming (Kahneman), or both.

Anchoring

The task decomposition heuristic is a problem-solving strategy that involves breaking down a large or complex goal into a series of smaller, more manageable steps. This approach makes overwhelming tasks feel more achievable. It also helps in identifying errors and separating known elements from unknown ones, a technique famously used by physicist Enrico Fermi.

Task Decomposition Heuristic

After watching extensive news coverage of a rare but dramatic lottery win in their city, a person starts spending a significant portion of their income on lottery tickets. Despite statistical evidence showing the odds are astronomically low, the vivid, recent example of a winner makes the possibility feel much more likely. Which mental shortcut best explains this person's change in behavior?

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