We often make predictions based on how much a description fits our preconceived stereotypes. This leads to ignoring base rates (base rate neglect) and the accuracy of the description.

Representative heuristic

An oversimplified representation of group. It often focuses on negative characteristics.

Stereotype

The self-based heuristic refers to the degree to which an individual’s own characteristics contribute to ratings of another’s personality. We use the self as a reference to judge others.

Self-Based Heuristic (SBH)

The emotion at the time of hearing about something affects our judgement of it. On the most basic level if we are in a bad mood, we will evaluate something worse and if we are in a good mood, we will evaluate it as better. 

Affect Heuristic

Fast and frugal heuristics are used during the decision-making process when understanding of the situation and the time and cognitive power needed to make the decision is limited (bounded rationality). 

Fast and Frugal Cognitive Heuristics

People use the popularity of an idea to inform what kind of content they select. It is a continuous cycle in which people see a post has many likes, so they share it, garnering more likes.

Bandwagon Heuristic

When people equate the popularity of ideas to the quality of the ideas. People are more willing to adopt what their peers have deemed as valuable.

Endorsement Heuristic

Working backwards is a problem-solving heuristic where an individual starts with the desired final outcome and works in reverse to determine the necessary steps to achieve it. This method is frequently applied in everyday planning, often without conscious thought.

Working Backwards

The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut where individuals make decisions based on information that is most easily recalled, such as a recent experience or a vivid example. This reliance on readily available information can lead to flawed judgments, as the most accessible information is not always the most representative or accurate for making a sound decision.

Availability Heuristic

System 1 often substitutes hard-to-answer questions with easier ones (without the awareness of system 2).  

Substituting Questions (Heuristic Questions)

When people consider a value and then have to estimate an unknown quantity. The estimated number will stay close to original number considered, whether or not the original number is related to the unknown quantity. There is debate on whether the effect is an adjustment heuristic (Tversky), an example of priming (Kahneman), or both.

Anchoring

The task decomposition heuristic is a problem-solving strategy that involves breaking down a large or complex goal into a series of smaller, more manageable steps. This approach makes overwhelming tasks feel more achievable. It also helps in identifying errors and separating known elements from unknown ones, a technique famously used by physicist Enrico Fermi.

Task Decomposition Heuristic

After watching extensive news coverage of a rare but dramatic lottery win in their city, a person starts spending a significant portion of their income on lottery tickets. Despite statistical evidence showing the odds are astronomically low, the vivid, recent example of a winner makes the possibility feel much more likely. Which mental shortcut best explains this person's change in behavior?

- Substituting questions
- Representative heuristic 
- Availability heuristic
- Affect heuristic
- Anchoring 
- Stereotype
- Self-Based Heuristic (SBH)
- Frugal Cognitive Heuristic
- Bandwagon heuristic
- Endorsement heuristic
- Working backwards

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

Columbia University

Google

San Jose State University

University of Delaware

Alma College

Smith College

Heuristics are mental shortcuts that people rely on to simplify the complex task of forming and maintaining beliefs. Because forming detailed and accurate beliefs requires extensive observation, memory, and analysis, individuals use these efficient cognitive strategies. However, relying on heuristics can sometimes lead to incorrect conclusions.

Heuristics

Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Nota, 2013.

Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. science, 185(4157), 1124-1131.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/185/4157/1124.abstract

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

Goldstein, E. B. (2014). Cognitive psychology: Connecting mind, research and everyday experience. Nelson Education.


Cognitive psychology: Connecting mind, research and everyday experience

Aronson, Elliot, and Joshua Aronson. The Social Animal. Worth Publishers, Macmillan Learning, 2018.

The Social Animal

Hadlington, L., Harkin, L. J., Kuss, D., Newman, K., & Ryding, F. C. (2022, January 13). Perceptions of Fake News, Misinformation, and Disinformation Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Qualitative Exploration. Psychology of Popular Media. Advance online publication. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/ppm0000387

Perceptions of Fake News, Misinformation, and Disinformation Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Qualitative Exploration

Spielman, R. M., Jenkins, W. J., & Lovett, M. D. (2020, April 22). Psychology (2nd ed.). OpenStax. https://openstax.org/books/psychology-2e/pages/1-introduction

OpenStax Psychology (2nd ed.) Textbook

Humans (and other animals) are considered cognitive misers. This is some being that conserves mental energy by simplifying the complexity of cognition. It leads to taking mental shortcuts  (heuristics) which can bias behavior.

Cognitive Misers

The use of heuristics is often triggered when certain conditions are met. These mental shortcuts are typically employed in situations characterized by: information overload, time constraints for decision-making, the low importance of the decision, a scarcity of information, or the spontaneous emergence of a suitable heuristic.

Conditions for Heuristic Usage

Our behavior is largely due to factors out of our control and awareness (such as heuristics). However, when we are asked to explain our behaviors, we readily provide reasoning for it while reconstructing the event. It often stems from wanting to look good to ourselves and to others.

Self-justification

Types of heuristics

Using heuristics in reasoning under uncertainty leads to predictable biases in behavior.  

Cognitive Bias

A number of errors in decision-making may result from an over-reliance on heuristics. These result in cognitive biases:
* Anchoring bias
* Confirmation bias
* Hindsight bias
* Representative bias
* Availability bias

Pitfalls to Problem Solving

A hiring manager has 200 applications for a job but only one hour to create a shortlist. They decide to only review applications from candidates who graduated from the same university they attended. Which of the following statements best evaluates this problem-solving approach?

A common example of relying on heuristics is the tendency to assume a belief is true simply because it is widely shared and makes intuitive sense. This mental shortcut is especially persuasive when the belief is endorsed by perceived experts, illustrating how individuals can adopt conclusions without conducting their own thorough empirical analysis.

Widely Shared Beliefs as an Example of Heuristics

Confirmation bias is the cognitive tendency to selectively focus on cases that validate our pre-existing intuitive beliefs while actively disregarding or forgetting cases that contradict them. This mental shortcut leads individuals to reinforce incorrect assumptions by ignoring disconfirming evidence.

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