A cab was involved in a hit and run. There are two cab companies, red and blue. What is the probability the cab involved in the accident is blue?

Respondents neglect the base rate (most common answer = 80%) when the story is phrased:

- 85% of cabs are green and 15% are blue

- A witness identified the cab as blue. During the cross examination, the witness correctly identified one of the two colors 80% of the time and failed 20%

Respondents give answers close to the Bayes rate (41%) when the story is phrased:

- The two companies operate the same number of cabs, but green cabs are involved in 85% of accidents

- A witness identified the cab as blue. During the cross examination, the witness correctly identified one of the two colors 80% of the time and failed 20%

Mathematically the problems are exactly the same, but in the second explanation of the story, a psychological causal link between green cabs and accidents is established because of the wording.

The Green and Blue cab example of causes trump statistics

The probability of a conjunction between two events (A and B) can't be more likely than a single one of the events (A) or (B).

Conjunction rule

The mind tends to ignore base rates (even if informed) and focuses on the most recently discovered evidence. Generally underweighted or neglected when specific casee information is available

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

We often make predictions based on how much a description fits our preconceived stereotypes. This leads to ignoring base rates (base rate neglect) and the accuracy of the description.

Representative heuristic

- Availability bias
- Negativity bias
- Base rate neglect
- Confirmation bias
- Status quo bias
- Framing effect
- Belief bias
- Hindsight bias
- Propaganda effect
- Bias blind spot
- Egocentric bias
- Fundamental Attribution Error
- Motivated reasoning
- Group-centric bias
- Third person effect
- Cross-group bias
- Ingroup bias
- Memory bias
- Prior Belief bias
- Bias Blind spots


List of biases (and behavioral effects)

Wikipedia

base rate neglect (fallacy)

People have a tendency to do nothing when facing a decision (exemplified by opt-in and opt-out procedures).

Status quo bias

People's decisions are affected by the way that the choices are framed (presented).

Framing effect

People have a tendency to think a syllogism is valid if it looks like it is true.

Belief Bias

Hindsight bias, also known as the “I knew it all along” phenomenon, happens when individuals think an outcome was inevitable after the fact. The reconstructive nature of memory contributes to this bias, causing people to remember untrue events that seem to confirm they knew the outcome beforehand.

Hindsight Bias

When people have heard something before they are more likely to assume it is true, even if the first time they were introduced to it they were told it wasn't true.

Propaganda effect

Humans have a bias to think they are less biased than others. Arises from the implicit operation of our beliefs which help us justify our actions. This can exacerbate other forms of bias because one is unaware of their own bias or they minimize their bias in comparison to others.

Bias Blind Spot

Humans have a tendency to focus on the negative. For example, we focus more on potential threats than benefits.

Negativity bias

Humans tend to overestimate the influence of personality (dispositional) compared to situational factors when making explanations for why people do what they do. 

The Fundamental Attribution Error

A bias in which new information that supports what we want to believe is readily accepted and information that supports what we do not want to believe is scrutinized in an effort to reduce cognitive dissonance. Motivated reasoning is very similar to confirmation bias

Motivated Reasoning

A hypothesis that people believe mass media has a larger influence on others than on themselves

Third Person Effect

When members of a particular population or community (i.e., group) favor the group of which they are a member for a particular measure.

Group-Centric Bias

When group members have negative views towards nonmembers of their group, not limited to nonmembers who are related to the group in an obvious way. 

Cross-Group Bias

Although humans ordinarily prioritize self-enhancing information, individuals also often perceive news media as largely opposing their personal beliefs.

Biases in media perception

A common type of bias that occurs when one does not recall information verbatim but instead recalls their own personal interpretation of the information.

Memory Bias

When a person's prior beliefs or attitudes impact what information they pay attention to and how they interpret new information. This bias often manifests as favoring information that is consistent with one's worldview and beliefs.

Prior Belief Bias

Confirmation bias is the cognitive tendency to selectively focus on cases that validate our pre-existing intuitive beliefs while actively disregarding or forgetting cases that disconfirm them. This mental shortcut leads individuals to reinforce incorrect assumptions by ignoring contradictory evidence.

Confirmation Bias

The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut where individuals make decisions based on information that is most easily recalled, such as a recent experience or a vivid example. This reliance on readily available information can lead to flawed judgments, as the most accessible information is not always the most representative or accurate for making a sound decision.

Availability Heuristic

Egocentric bias is a memory distortion that involves enhancing our memories of the past. For example, an individual might remember scoring the winning goal in a soccer match when they actually only assisted.

Egocentric Bias

In-group bias is the tendency to prefer one's own group over other groups. This preference stems from the strong sense of belonging and emotional connection individuals feel toward their in-groups.

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