Even statistical experts do not recognize if a sampling effects played a large role in an outcome, when using their intuition.

Intuitive understanding of sampling effects

They are base rates framed in a way that changes your view about how the case at hand came to be.

Causal base rates

Statistical results that have accompanying causal interpretations have a stronger effect on our thinking  than non-causal information. However even information that is framed causally can't overcome personal beliefs reinforced by experience

Learning through causal explanations

The associative mechanisms in the brain (system 1) seek causes to explain and rationalize events. This is part of the reason why we are bad intuitive statisticians: statistics often deals in probabilities - relating what did happen to what could've happened.

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

The automatic system used in cognition. Generates: feelings, intuitions, impressions and intentions.

System 1 

Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Nota, 2013.

Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman

To maintain and update models of our subjective worlds

Main function of system 1

Understanding a statement begins with pondering the ramifications if it were to be true - what would it mean if it were true. This initial attempt to believe is an action of system 1.  System 1 is "bias" to believe.

Believing

A state of expending considerable cognitive effort over a long period of time without having to exert will power. Known as an "Optimal experience". It is a state of "effortless concentration, so deep they lose their sense of time, of themselves and their problems"

flow

System 1 is highly adept at creating a comprehensive story based on the information available to it - it only represents activated ideas. The quality and amount of data is irrelevant, all that matters to system 1 is how coherent the story is.

What you see is all there is (WYSIATI)

- operates automatically with no sense of voluntary control
- can be programmed by system 2 to mobilize attention to a particular pattern (search)
- executes skilled responses and intuitions after adequate training
- links a sense of cognitive ease to illusions of truth, and pleasant feelings
- distinguishes between surprising and normal
- exaggerates emotional consistency (halo effect) 
- focuses on existing evidence, ignores absent evidence (WYSIATI)
- generates a limited set of basic assessments

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Characteristics of system 1 

- Priming effect (and anchoring)

- Halo effect

- Sampling effect

- Availability heuristic

- Representative heuristic

Effects that arise from system 1 activity

Psychology of Cause and Change

People unconsciously use knowledge about the world when making judgments. Tacit knowledge us usually considered procedural ("knowing how" not "knowing what") and resembles wisdom.

Tacit knowledge

Processing that happens:
- Without intention (unconscious, implicit)
- Low cost of cognitive resources

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