1Cademy - Reproductive Number in China (January 10 2020 to January 24 2020: 8-fold approach)

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Studies on COVID-19 Reproductive Number in China

Concept

Reproductive Number in China (January 10 2020 to January 24 2020: 8-fold approach)

Method: Statistical exponential growth model method adopting serial interval from SARS (mean = 8.4 days, SD = 3.8 days) and MERS (mean = 7.6 days, SD = 3.4 days). Approaches: Corresponding to an 8-fold increase in the reporting rate. $R_0 = 1/M(-r)$ , where $r$ = intrinsic growth rate and $M$ = moment generating function. Estimated $R_0$ : 2.24 (95% CI: 1.96 - 2.55).