University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

- Reproductive Number in China (January 1 2020 to January 22 2020)
- Reproductive Number in China (January 18 2020) 
- Reproductive Number in China (January 23 2020) 
- Reproductive Number in China (January 10 2020 to January 24 2020: 8-fold approach)
- Reproductive Number in China (January 10 2020 to January 24 2020: 2-fold approach)
- Reproductive Number in China (January 22 2020: Tang et al.)
- Reproductive Number in China (January 22 2020: Quin Li et al.)

Studies on COVID-19 Reproductive Number in China

Liu, Ying, et al. “The Reproductive Number of COVID-19 Is Higher Compared to SARS Coronavirus.” Journal of Travel Medicine, vol. 27, no. 2, 2020, doi:10.1093/jtm/taaa021.

The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus

Method: Mathematical transmission model assuming latent period = 4 days and near to the incubation period 

Approaches: Assumes daily time increments with Poisson-distribution and apply a deterministic SEIR metapopulation transmission model, transmission rate = 1.94, infectious period =1.61 days 

Estimated R$_0$: 3.11 (95% CI 2.39 - 4.13)

Reproductive Number in China (January 1 2020 to January 22 2020)

Reproductive Number in China (January 18 2020) 

Method: Mathematical model including compartments Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Death-Cumulative (SEIRDC) 

Approaches: R = K 2 (L × D) + K(L + D) + 1L = average latent period = 7,D = average latent infectious period = 9,K = logarithmic growth rate of the case counts 

Estimated R$_0$: 4.08

Reproductive Number in China (January 23 2020)

Method: Statistical exponential growth model method adopting serial interval from SARS (mean = 8.4 days, SD = 3.8 days) and MERS (mean = 7.6 days, SD = 3.4 days) 

Approaches: Corresponding to 2-fold increase in the reporting rateR0 = 1/M(−𝑟)𝑟 =intrinsic growth rateM = moment generating function 

Estimated R$_0$: 3.58 (95% CI 2.89 - 4.39)

Reproductive Number in China (January 10 2020 to January 24 2020: 2-fold approach)

Method: Statistical exponential growth model method adopting serial interval from SARS (mean = 8.4 days, SD = 3.8 days) and MERS (mean = 7.6 days, SD = 3.4 days) 

Approaches: Corresponding to 8-fold increase in the reporting rateR0 = 1/M(−𝑟)𝑟 =intrinsic growth rateM = moment generating function 

Estimated R$_0$: 2.24 (95% CI 1.96 - 2.55)

Reproductive Number in China (January 10 2020 to January 24 2020: 8-fold approach)

Method: Statistical exponential growth model

Approaches: Mean incubation period = 5.2 days, mean serial interval = 7.5 days 

Estimated R$_0$: 2.2 (95% CI 1.4 - 3.9)

Reproductive Number of COVID-19 Infected Pneumonia in China (January 22 2020: Qun Li et al.)

Method: Mathematical SEIR-type epidemiological model incorporates appropriate compartments corresponding to interventions 

Approaches: Method-based method and Likelihood-based method 

Estimated R$_0$: 6.47 (95% CI 5.71 - 7.23)

Learn Before

Related