The belief that the moon affects human behavior is often supported by a seemingly logical but flawed analogy. This reasoning draws a parallel between the moon's powerful gravitational effect on ocean tides and its supposed influence on humans, pointing out that our bodies are also composed mainly of water. This line of thinking incorrectly assumes that the gravitational forces that move vast oceans would have a similar, noticeable impact on the water within a person's body.

Flawed Analogy in the Moon-Behavior Illusory Correlation

Despite the popular belief in a connection between the moon's phases and human behavior, scientific evidence indicates that no such relationship exists. A comprehensive meta-analysis reviewing nearly 40 different studies concluded that there is no statistical link between the lunar cycle and human actions. The perception of a correlation is likely explained by attentional bias; people are more likely to notice and remember odd behavior when it coincides with a full moon, while the actual frequency of such behavior remains constant.

Scientific Evidence Against the Moon-Behavior Correlation

The widespread belief that psychiatric admissions and crimes increase during a full moon, despite scientific evidence showing no such statistical relationship, is an example of which of the following concepts?

A prominent myth in popular psychology and an example of an illusory correlation is the widespread belief that the moon's phases influence human behavior, such as the idea that psychiatric admissions and crimes increase during a full moon. Extensive scientific research has consistently found no such statistical relationship, and the perception of this link is likely due to attentional bias.

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An illusory correlation, also known as a false correlation, is a common error in misinterpreting data where an individual believes a relationship exists between two things when no such relationship actually exists. This mistake frequently arises from unsystematic observations, leading people to erroneously claim a statistical association is present.

Illusory Correlation: Perceiving Nonexistent Relationships

- People are predominantly left-brained or right-brained
- Memories of trauma can be repressed and hypnosis used to retrieve them
- Polygraph tests can tell when people are lying

Pop Psychology Myth Examples

Folk psychology encompasses the intuitive beliefs and commonsense notions people naturally develop about human behavior, thoughts, and feelings. Although some of these everyday assumptions are reasonably accurate, scientific research demonstrates that many intuitive beliefs are incorrect, highlighting the necessity of a formal scientific approach to psychology.

Folk Psychology

Spielman, R. M., Jenkins, W. J., & Lovett, M. D. (2020, April 22). Psychology (2nd ed.). OpenStax. https://openstax.org/books/psychology-2e/pages/1-introduction

OpenStax Psychology (2nd ed.) Textbook

https://kpu.pressbooks.pub/psychmethods4e/

KPU Research Methods in Psychology - 4th American Edition

Illusory Correlation is an event in which an individual finds a relationship between two objects when in reality there isn't one. For example, a person is given two randomized lists:

List A: bacon, lion, blossoms, boat

List B: eggs, tiger, notebook

If the word "bacon" is chosen from list A, the individual would more than likely expect the word "eggs" to be chosen from list B. It is thought that you see things more often if you believe those two things go together more often than not. It would also be expected that if the word "lion" was randomly chosen from list A, the individual would believe that the word "tiger" would be randomly chosen from list B (Goodie, A. 2023 'Judgement and Decision Making').  

Example of Illusory Correlation

Confirmation bias is the cognitive tendency to selectively focus on cases that validate our pre-existing intuitive beliefs while actively disregarding or forgetting cases that disconfirm them. This mental shortcut leads individuals to reinforce incorrect assumptions by ignoring contradictory evidence.

Confirmation Bias

One cognitive mechanism that leads to the belief in illusory correlations is confirmation bias. This occurs when a person has a pre-existing belief or hunch about a relationship and subsequently seeks out, interprets, and remembers information that confirms this belief, while actively ignoring or dismissing evidence that contradicts it.

Confirmation Bias as a Cause of Illusory Correlations

People are often prone to believing in illusory correlations because they tend to accept information they encounter, particularly from reading or hearing, as valid without applying critical evaluation. This passive acceptance of claims can lead to the formation of false beliefs about relationships between variables.

Uncritical Acceptance of Information as a Cause of Illusory Correlations

Illusory correlations contribute significantly to the formation of stereotypes and prejudicial attitudes. This occurs when an individual perceives a false association between a particular social group and specific behaviors. Such inaccurate connections can establish and reinforce stereotypes, which in turn can foster prejudicial attitudes and potentially lead to discriminatory behavior.

Role of Illusory Correlations in Stereotyping and Prejudice

Read the scenario below and analyze the manager's thought process. Explain why the manager's conclusion is likely flawed, focusing specifically on the mental error that leads to perceiving a relationship between two factors that may not actually be related.

Analyzing a Flawed Conclusion

Read the following scenario and analyze the cognitive error being made. Explain how the individual's selective attention to certain events leads to their faulty conclusion.

Analyzing Everyday Judgments

Another reason people perceive illusory correlations is that they base their beliefs on the information that is most readily accessible in their memory. Even when this easily recalled information is extremely limited or unrepresentative, its availability in the mind can cause individuals to mistakenly conclude that a significant relationship exists between two events or variables.

Information Availability as a Cause of Illusory Correlations

The Full Moon Myth

A common misconception in popular psychology is the belief that the majority of people go through a psychological midlife crisis during their 40s or 50s. Scientific research has shown that a normative, universal midlife crisis is a myth.

The Midlife Crisis Myth

A prevalent myth in popular psychology suggests that students learn most effectively when educational methods are tailored to their specific learning styles. Scientific studies have demonstrated that matching teaching styles to learning styles is a misconception that does not improve educational outcomes.

The Learning Styles Myth

A widely held commonsense belief is that low self-esteem is a major underlying cause of various psychological problems. However, empirical research indicates that this popular psychology myth overstates the causal role of self-esteem in mental health issues.

The Low Self-Esteem Myth

A widely held myth of popular psychology is the incorrect belief that individuals utilize only 10% of their brain's capacity. Scientific evidence has debunked this idea, showing that humans use virtually all parts of their brain.

The 10% Brain Power Myth

While some ideas represented in pop psychology are true, much of pop psychology is full of misinformation that is mistaken for fact by laypeople, non-psychological professionals, and even some in the mental health field.

Pop Psychology Myths

A prevalent misconception in folk psychology is that expressing anger by "letting it out"—such as screaming or punching an object—will relieve the emotion. Contrary to this commonsense belief, scientific research has demonstrated that venting anger in this manner typically leaves individuals feeling more angry rather than less.

The Catharsis Myth

A common intuitive belief is that an innocent person would never confess to a crime they did not commit unless subjected to extreme duress, such as physical torture. However, extensive empirical research contradicts this commonsense notion, revealing that false confessions are surprisingly frequent and occur for a variety of psychological and situational reasons.

The False Confessions Myth

Motivational bias is the cognitive tendency to hold onto incorrect intuitive beliefs simply because it is emotionally pleasing or comforting if they were true. People maintain these incorrect beliefs, often despite a lack of empirical evidence, because the beliefs provide hope or foster positive feelings about themselves.

Motivational Bias

Scientists cultivate an attitude of skepticism, which means pausing to consider alternatives and to search for evidence—especially systematically collected empirical evidence—when there is enough at stake to justify doing so. It does not mean being cynical, distrustful, or questioning every claim one comes across.

Scientific Skepticism

Because humans lack the natural cognitive capacity for extensive observation, memory, and complex analysis, forming perfectly accurate beliefs is nearly impossible. This cognitive limitation forces people to rely on mental shortcuts to process everyday information and form conclusions.

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