Activity (Process)

The Mechanism of an Accelerating Wage-Price Spiral

An accelerating wage-price spiral is a self-perpetuating cycle that occurs when low unemployment persists. After an initial wage increase (e.g., 7%) raises production costs, firms use markup pricing to pass this on as a price increase of the same magnitude. This erodes workers' real wages again, prompting them to demand an even higher nominal wage in the next round, which incorporates the new, higher inflation rate plus the original bargaining gap (e.g., 7% expected inflation + 2% bargaining gap = 9% wage demand). As long as the positive bargaining gap remains, this cycle repeats, causing the inflation rate to increase by the size of the bargaining gap each year.

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Updated 2026-01-15

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