Analyzing Decision-Making with the 'As If' Principle
A cyclist new to a city wants to find the fastest route to work. She does not use a map or a GPS app. For the first few weeks, she tries different combinations of streets. She learns that one route is shorter but has a steep hill, making it slower. Another route is flat but has more traffic lights. After a month of experimenting, she settles on a specific path that consistently gets her to work the fastest. An economist observes her and notes that her final chosen route is the same one that a complex computer model, which accounts for distance, elevation, and average traffic light delays, would have predicted as optimal.
Analyze the cyclist's behavior. Explain how this scenario illustrates the argument that a model of rational choice can be useful even if its assumptions about the decision-making process are not literally true.
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