Figure 5.1: Inflation and US Presidential Election Outcomes (1912–2020)
This dataset is presented as a scatterplot illustrating the relationship between the US inflation rate and the electoral margin for the incumbent party in presidential elections. A line of best fit is drawn through the data points, sloping downward to indicate that the ruling party typically performs better when inflation is low. The chart omits two years of deflation; including this data would make the observed negative correlation between inflation and electoral success even stronger.
0
1
Tags
Economics
Economy
Introduction to Macroeconomics Course
Ch.5 Macroeconomic policy: Inflation and unemployment - The Economy 2.0 Macroeconomics @ CORE Econ
The Economy 2.0 Macroeconomics @ CORE Econ
CORE Econ
Social Science
Empirical Science
Science
Related
Figure 5.1: Inflation and US Presidential Election Outcomes (1912–2020)
Factors Moderating the Political Impact of Inflation
Evaluating Political Strategy in an Inflationary Environment
A developed nation with a stable two-party system is heading into a general election. For the past four years, the incumbent party has overseen a period of steady economic growth and low unemployment. However, in the nine months leading up to the election, a sudden and unexpected surge in inflation has caused the cost of living to rise sharply, leading to widespread public discontent. Based on the typical relationship between economic conditions and voting patterns, what is the most probable impact on the election?
Electoral Forecast Analysis
The principle that high inflation negatively affects the electoral success of an incumbent party is an absolute rule, consistently observed without exception in all political and economic contexts.
Correlation
Economic Uncertainty from Unexpected Inflation
Line of Best Fit
Direction of Correlations
A city analyst observes that neighborhoods with a higher number of public libraries also report, on average, a higher median household income. Based solely on this observed statistical association, which of the following is the most accurate conclusion?
Analyzing a Faulty Conclusion
Evaluating a Public Health Proposal
Interpreting Economic Data
A study reveals a strong positive statistical association between the monthly sales of ice cream and the number of drowning incidents at a beach resort. This finding proves that eating ice cream before swimming increases the risk of drowning.
Match each statistical concept with the real-world scenario that best illustrates it.
An economist observes that in years when the average price of coffee beans increases, the average quantity of tea sold in cafes also increases. What type of statistical relationship does this observation describe between the price of coffee and the quantity of tea sold?
Evaluating a Causal Claim
An automotive industry analyst observes that as the age of a specific model of car increases, its average resale value consistently decreases. This statistical relationship, where an increase in one variable is associated with a decrease in another, is described as a ______ correlation.
A researcher studying elementary school children finds a strong positive statistical association between their shoe size and their scores on a standardized reading test. As shoe size increases, reading scores tend to be higher. Which of the following statements provides the most logical analysis of this finding?
Correlation Coefficient
Predictive Value of Correlation
Figure 5.1: Inflation and US Presidential Election Outcomes (1912–2020)
Strong Correlation Between Exchange Rate Depreciation and Inflation (2009-2019)
Negative Correlation Between Central Bank Independence and Inflation (OECD, 1962-1990) [Figure E5.1]
Empirical Link Between Relatively Stable Exchange Rates and Low Inflation
Nonlinear Relationship
Distinguishing Correlation from Causation: Television and Exams
Scatterplots
Linear Relationship
What does a negative correlation indicate about the relationship between two variables?
Figure 5.1: Inflation and US Presidential Election Outcomes (1912–2020)
An economist creates a scatterplot to examine the relationship between the average number of hours a person works per week (on the x-axis) and their self-reported happiness score from 1 to 10 (on the y-axis). After plotting the data from a large survey, a line of best fit is calculated and drawn. This line starts high on the left side of the graph and slopes downwards to the right. Based only on this line of best fit, what is the most reasonable interpretation of the relationship between the two variables?
Evaluating a Conclusion from a Scatterplot
An economist is studying the relationship between a country's average tariff rate (the tax on imported goods) and its gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. They create a scatterplot with the tariff rate on the x-axis and GDP per capita on the y-axis. The resulting line of best fit starts high on the left side of the graph and slopes downwards to the right. Which of the following statements is the most accurate analysis of the relationship shown by this line?
Interpreting a Scatterplot of Education and Income
What is the primary purpose of a line of best fit (also known as a regression line) when drawn through a scatterplot?