Projecting the Potential Impact of COVID-19 School Closures on Academic Achievement: Quantifying Variability in COVID-19 Impacts
- In addition to predicting learning rates over the 2019-2020 school year, the researchers estimated variation in those learning rates over the summer as well as variation in projected student test scores in the fall (under both typical conditions and COVID slide conditions)
- In math, the predicted SDs were projected to be similar to a typical fall, while SD’s of reading are projected to be up to 1.2 times the typical SD’s in the fall.
- This demonstrated that students would enter the 2020-2021 school year with not only less learning gains in general, but also a wider range of academic ability among students.

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